Technoscan

As we track technological progress, using the 45 types of trends as described in the previous posting, it becomes evident that there is an inexorable march towards a state of increased technological effectiveness. Throughout the long course of history, FPMs are emerging with ever-higher values.

Essentially this is because inventors are increasing, or maintaining, output, while reducing the inputs of matter (M), energy (E), and information (I), and the requirements of time (T) and space (S). These changes in FPMs,  occuring throughout the technological landscape, reflect economic improvements as measured in physical units. Such improvements translate into improvements for the economy as a whole as measured in monetary values, in other words, economic growth.

Better FPMs, occurring throughout the technological landscape, are the keys to making  the link between technological progress and economic growth visible.

When technological progress is viewed in this way, the question may be asked whether there is an ultimate end-state. The answer is twofold:

1. We can conceive of an ultimate “omega state” using the mathematical limiting values that will emerge when we extrapolate the FPMs. In the long run the inputs of M,E, and I, as well as the requirements of T and S, all tend to zero.
2. In practice, and long before omega state, other constraints will make themselves felt. These include constraints imposed by ultimate theoretical limits from the field of physics, and constraints imposed by temporary barriers existing in the various fields of engineering.

Omega state is a convenient mind-set. In this state all FPMs tend towards infinity. We find this a useful construct to serve as a backdrop for structuring technology foresight.

Copyright: Rias J. van Wyk, 2009.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009 at 1:42 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.