As technological progress takes place, new values for FPMs emerge, and the technological frontier advances from its present position to a new one. Using techno-trends, based on FPMs as described earlier, it is possible to track technological progress as it occurs throughout the technological landscape.
As this is such a critical phenomenon, the question arises whether there is an organization that systematically tracks technological progress and charts the locality of the technological frontier?
Surprisingly, very few organizations are involved in this activity. Technoscan Centre, that hosts this blog, is one. It has produced a compilation that is in an “advanced prototype phase”. (Van Wyk, Rias J.; Karschnia, Bob; and Olson, Wayne; 2008, “Atlas of technological advance”, Research.Technology Management, September/ October, Vol. 51, No 5, pp. 61-66). This work covers the full spectrum of technologies.
Koh, H. and Magee, C.L., of MIT, have produced two of the most exhaustive studies of technological progress, using FPMs. They have tracked developments over many decades and have done this for the domains of information (I), and energy (E). (“A functional approach to studying technological progress: Applications to information technology” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, Vol. 73, No. 9, pp. 1061-1083. And also: “A functional approach to studying technological progress: Extensions to energy technology” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2008, Vol. 73, No. 6, pp. 735-758).
There are also many examples of technology roadmaps for particular industries. But by and large, a definitive quantitative study of overall technological progress has yet to emerge.
Copyright 2009; Rias J van Wyk