Technoscan

As we track technological progress, using the 45 types of trends as described in the previous posting, it becomes evident that there is an inexorable march towards a state of increased technological effectiveness. Throughout the long course of history, FPMs are emerging with ever-higher values.

Essentially this is because inventors are increasing, or maintaining, output, while reducing the inputs of matter (M), energy (E), and information (I), and the requirements of time (T) and space (S). These changes in FPMs,  occuring throughout the technological landscape, reflect economic improvements as measured in physical units. Such improvements translate into improvements for the economy as a whole as measured in monetary values, in other words, economic growth.

Better FPMs, occurring throughout the technological landscape, are the keys to making  the link between technological progress and economic growth visible.

When technological progress is viewed in this way, the question may be asked whether there is an ultimate end-state. The answer is twofold:

1. We can conceive of an ultimate “omega state” using the mathematical limiting values that will emerge when we extrapolate the FPMs. In the long run the inputs of M,E, and I, as well as the requirements of T and S, all tend to zero.
2. In practice, and long before omega state, other constraints will make themselves felt. These include constraints imposed by ultimate theoretical limits from the field of physics, and constraints imposed by temporary barriers existing in the various fields of engineering.

Omega state is a convenient mind-set. In this state all FPMs tend towards infinity. We find this a useful construct to serve as a backdrop for structuring technology foresight.

Copyright: Rias J. van Wyk, 2009.

The functionality grid provides a map of the entire technological landscape. As such it offers a view of the nine pathways along which technological progress occurs.

We measure technological progress by means of time-related graphs, i.e., techno-trends, of improved functional performance in each of the nine pathways. These improvements reflect the triple trends of technological progress. We construct these trends from time series of functional performance metrics (FPMs) that are identified for technologies in every pathway.

In practice a minimum of five FPMs are required to reflect technological progress in each case. (i) Three FPMs reflect improvements in the ratio of output to input, (ii) One FPM is required to reflect improvement in throughput. (iii) And one FPM is required to reflect improvement in functional density.

Taking the first pathway in the grid, i.e., matter processing, as example, the five FPMs would be:

• Output of M/Input of M
• Output of M/Input of E
• Output of M/Input of I
• Output of M/T
• Output of M/S

In this definition M,E and I refer to matter, energy and information, while T and S refer to time and space respectively.

This approach generates a chart of 45 types of technology trend that describes progress across the full technological landscape.

Copyright: Rias van Wyk, 2009.